Taber Talk – the 2012 AFL Grand Final Edition.

He was the then Hanoi Swans’ President in 2005/2006.  He held aloft the spoils of our first international victory in 2006! He’s hard-hitting, opinionated and as controversial as ever. He’s our very own Daryl “Smooth” “DT” Taber and each year, since 2007, he’s delivered Taber Talk during the AFL Finals Series. This morning, Taber returns with Taber Talk – the 2012 Grand Final Edition.

Taber is B.I.T. (back in town) with two correct tips last weekend. Here’s a flashback to some of his offerings last weekend:

 “Clarko… should be concerned about the Hawks’ defence… Schoenmakers?”

”…more silk from Rioli and Burgoyne…” re match winning performances in time-on final quarter.

“…Crows to improve their strike rate in front of goal?”

Read on for, arguably, the most important sporting column written this season: Taber Talk – the 2012 AFL Grand Final Edition.

Grand Game of Offence V Defence

The Swans and Hawks will meet in their first ever grand final! These teams represent the best attacking team versus the best defensive outfit. It’s hard to separate the best two teams throughout 2012 and it seems like we are in for a classic encounter.

Recent history at the MCG favours the Hawks. Hawthorn has won 12 of its 15 games on the hallowed turf this season, its past 11 against non-Victorian teams at the ground, and its past four there against the Swans. The Swans have lost 11 of their past 13 games at the MCG and have played there only once this season. Hawthorn has ten players with grand final experience on the MCG while Sydney has seven.

If we choose to focus on last week’s form of both teams the Swans look better. They were very impressive in their strong victory over Collingwood in the preliminary final breaking an 11-game hoodoo against the Pies. Their thirty-one scoring shots to twenty suggests it was a convincing win. The Swans are not the most attacking, skilful or fluent team you’ll watch but they specialize in doing the team things and nullifying their opponents.

There will be plenty of excitement at this year’s Swannies’ AFL Grand Final parties in Hanoi & Saigon.

The Swans thrashed Collingwood in the contested possession count last week and laid more tackles.  This preparation is perfect for a grand final and the Swans have recently made a habit of making a flying start. The beginnings of grand finals are pressure-packed and the Hawks would love for Rioli, Burgoyne and Buddy to get going earlier this week to release some of it. Last time these two teams met the Hawks recovered from a slow start to reel the Swans in. Sydney would love a similar start to gain momentum and unsettle the favoured Hawks. The extra days rest this week should benefit the Swans.

For the Hawks too, scoring shots and inside 50’s showed they were the better team last week, but they may pay the ultimate price if they are as wayward at goal this week. Franklin, Rioli and Breust were the main culprits but at least Rioli got most of it right in the end. Words from Brad Sewell expressed Hawthorn’s relief post-siren, ‘Thank God for Cyril.’ The Crows were persistent and gave the Hawks a major fright. The winner of the 2012 Grand Final could simply be the team that makes the most of its opportunities.

Taber enjoys some of the action at the, then, Hanoi Swans’ AFL Grand Final Party in Hanoi, 2006.

Hawthorn wins if we go on talent and X-Factor.  Last week Burgoyne bravely decided to throw himself into the centre bounces deep in to time-on before clearing deep for Rioli to mark and goal.  Buddy did enough to cause more stress for the Swans tacticians and Hodge returns from illness this to his role as Cool ‘Hands’ Luke.  Goodes and Jetta need to produce plenty if the Swans are to win. Lewis Roberts-Thomson (LRT) could easily be used as the swingman between forward and back where he can be equally effective.

Some coaches have a defensive outlook as a first priority. If you’re a believer the best defence will win, you’ll tip the Swans. All 22 are very well drilled in the defensive aspects of their respective roles. They nullify, tackle and smother their opposition better than any other team and usually dig out a low score to win. Will the Swans be ready to prevent Hawthorn’s regular tactic of handballing off to a left-footer who kicks a goal from outside 50m?

How often do we hear this game will be won in the midfield. Brownlow medal votes may indicate why. The 6 All-Australian defenders at the Brownlow this week scored an average 1.3 votes. The 8 All-Australian midfielders scored an average of 21.5 votes! The last forward to win a Brownlow was ‘Plugger’ Lockett in 1987? The tussle between All Australian full back Ted Richards and All-Australian full forward Lance Franklin is another battle that could decide the winner of this match. To quote Bruce McAvaney, “Delicious”!

Hawthorn has the best playmakers in the midfield. In Round 22 the difference between the Swans at home against the Hawks came down to two vital late clearances that resulted in Hawthorn goals. It was very similar to Hawthorn’s victory last week. The Hawks willed themselves to win. The match-ups are anyone’s guess but Kieran Jack has good form tagging Mitchell. Mitchell’s two lowest-possession games this season were against the Swans. Maybe Sewell will get Kennedy but I expect both will get plenty of the ball.

Lewis, Hodge and Sewell will take on the much underrated Hanneberry, Jack and Bolton. The Hawks may look better at ground level but Mumford is the better ruckman. The Hawks rely on Roughead to have spells in the ruck but it reduces their forward line marking power. In rounds 15 to 21, ‘Rough’ kicked only one goal. Are the Hawks asking too much of him?

Daryl Taber, circled, celebrates with the Hanoi Swans after the Sydney Swans’ success in Hanoi, 2005. Will they be celebrating again at 5pm on Saturday?

So who has the most potent forward line? With Buddy and Cyril well supported by Gunston and Breust you would say Hawthorn. However, we can expect Mumford to do some of his ‘resting’ up forward to keep the pressure on ‘Shaky Schoey’ and his short statured teammates. I think the psychologist attending to Schoenmakers has been the busiest at Hawthorn this week. If Goodes and LRT get going up forward, supported by Jetta darting around, the same wounds for Hawthorn could open up. Mitch Morton showed in Adelaide he is a strong mark and kick and could be another forward that gets under the Hawks’ guard.

Will the attacking strengths of the Hawks be sufficiently nullified by the defensive strategies of the Swans? I’ve heard a lot of theories this week and studied a lot of statistics. Lethal Leigh Matthews keeps it simple. He says it’s a whole new week so forget what’s happened in the past. So even though the Hawks got most ticks above my gut feeling is the Swans, being in better form and without the pressure of being favourites, will win an absolute cracker of a game!

And just in case that’s not enough !

Goal umpire Chelsea Roffey makes history in the AFL as the first female umpire in a grand final.

Josh Kennedy will play for the Swans on Saturday. Originally drafted to Hawthorn, Josh Kennedy is the grandson of John Kennedy Senior and son of John Kennedy Junior, both Hawthorn greats.

Stuart Dew played a match-turning 20 minutes to help the Hawks win their last premiership. This week he is part of the Swans football department.

Lewis Jetta has come a long way since his early AFL games.  Jetta kicked 19 points in the AFL before his first goal. He is in great form at the moment but can he maintain it under the relentless ‘attention’ and pressure of Hawthorn in a grand final?

Now, over to the Polldaddy:

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